Smuaintean à Sgiogarstaidh — Striking the Balance. The 2026 Guga Harvest licence has been refused. How do we strike a balance between science and a licence for 2027?

Monday in Spòrsnis was a difficult day. NatureScot had released its Board paper the previous week, recommending that no licence be granted for the 2026 guga harvest on Sula Sgeir. A group of us gathered in Spòrsnis to watch the Board meeting online.

Taken alone, this could be seen as a simple year out: accept the setback, allow confidence in the guga population to strengthen, and return to a sustainable harvest. But that only holds if the decision-making framework remains clear, consistent and rooted in evidence.
If we take NatureScot at its word, there should be reason to believe that a 2027 application can succeed. Much will depend on the 2026 population survey. The last count, in 2024, was 10,200, only slightly below the citation level of 10,400. If the 2023–2024 rise continues, numbers should move comfortably above citation level and towards 11,000. By historical standards that would be a healthy population.
I read NatureScot’s report several times before the Board meeting. As an engineer, part of my work is reading technical reports, testing the logic, and translating the key points for senior decision-makers. I understood the population projection analysis. It concluded that the Sula Sgeir population could sustain a harvest of 500 in 2026, and that NatureScot would support such a licence application. That point is in the report (ref page 41). It is also the tried and tested method used for years to give confidence in the robustness of the population.
However, NatureScot also introduced new population modelling methodology to test robustness from another angle. This 25-year model examined harvest sizes of 0, 250, 500 and 2,000, while factoring in potential windfarm mortality and the possibility of another Avian Flu outbreak. I understand the process and the mathematics, but I am less convinced by its relevance to the decision before the Board.